Rise and shine everyone.
Bitcoin ETFs got approved yesterday… this time for real! 11 ETFs got approved and some could start trading as soon as today. But, just as we suspected, this didn’t lead to a huge spike in price, given the previous day's spike on the fake news. Analysts estimate $50B in flows over the next 6 months to 1 year.
Today’s big news is the release of the CPI inflation data. Although, with most people pricing in a steady deceleration in inflation over the next few months, we’re seeing less emphasis on inflation data, with more emphasis shifting to labor data.
The consensus is for headline CPI to come in slightly hotter and Core Inflation to come in slightly cooler, which is also another reason to focus on unemployment.
Headline CPI: YoY 3.2%e vs. 3.1% previous. MoM 0.2%e vs. 0.1% previous
Core CPI: YoY 3.8%e vs. 4% previous. MoM 0.3%e vs. 0.3% previous
Services inflation falling could lead to more job losses, or at least reduced hiring - something we already saw in last week’s ISM Data.
The focus for this week’s inflation data will be none other than shelter and autos. While new and used vehicle prices are expected to decline, shelter inflation growth has remained quite steady.
Now the question is: With the Fed signaling rate cuts and more recently tapering of QT, are people going to put off big purchases until those cuts actually come in?