Rise and shine everyone.

It’s a relatively quiet start to what is going to be a very volatile week.

The US Election kicks off tomorrow and it’s starting to get far more exciting than anticipated. Polls are showing Harris in the lead, and the betting markets are showing the difference narrow between the two candidates, with Trump still in the lead. The focus is on the seven swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.

Some of the Trump trades have reversed and we’re going to see far more hedging into and after the event. With such a tight race, the election could end up being contested and therefore, volatility could continue for a while.

We also have many central bank rate decisions during the week, with the Fed and the Bank of England on Thursday - the two most watched meetings.

It’s safe to say that everyone expects a 25 bps cut from both the Fed and the BoE. The alarming US jobs report on Friday, which showed a mere 12k jobs being added, is being seen as a one-off due to the hurricanes and strikes. So, it’s unlikely that the Fed will do another jumbo cut this time around.

For the Bank of England, things are a little more complicated. Inflation has been decelerating, and the economy still remains relatively intact. With that, the path should be easier for the BoE to cut. However, last week’s budget decisions could see further fiscal spending, which makes the BoE’s job harder.

WTI crude rose +1.5%, back above $70, following Iran’s statement of a “strong and complex” response to last week’s Israeli attack, along with reports that OPEC+ confirmed a one-month delay in the planned December 2024 oil output increase.

China’s NPC bi-monthly Standing Committee Meeting begins today and runs until Nov 8, with anticipated announcements on stimulus measures.

Berkshire Hathaway disclosed further sales of Apple stock in Q3, selling 100 million shares, bringing its holdings down from 905 million to 300 million shares this year.

Nvidia could see a boost this week, as it will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Nov 8, replacing Intel.

We still have some interesting earnings this week to keep an eye. Palantir reports today after market close.

Chart of the Day

A few interesting FX trade calls from BNP Paribas based on US election outcomes.

Calendars

(news taken from Reuters, FT, Bloomberg; Calendar from Trading Economics)