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Global Outlook 2024: The Euro Area and the UK

75% chance of recession to bring rate cuts sooner rather than later

Author

Ayesha Tariq
January 08, 2024

Both the Euro Area and the UK showed remarkable resilience and defied the odds of a recession last year. This year, however, we think that the odds of a recession are at 75% for both regions, given that policy lags will continue to work their way through the system.

Both regions are far more sensitive to rising interest rates than the US and we think that this has been slowly eroding their economy.

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