Macro Morsels: Analyzing today's jobless claims

The Department of Labor (DOL) has reported that for the week ending March 18, 2023, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims were at 191,000, showing a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's level of 192,000. The 4-week moving average fell by 250 to 196,250.

The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% for the week ending March 11, with the number of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment increasing by 14,000 to 1,694,000.

This stronger-than-expected data on unemployment claims indicates a tight labor market insofar as those that are participating, which could impact the Federal Reserve's goal of creating more slack in the workforce.

As a result, inflation, particularly in services, may be influenced as high labor demand persists, giving the Federal Reserve cause to maintain higher rates and keep running off the balance sheet for a longer period than the market anticipates.