MacroVisor May 2024 Retail Sales Preview

The retail sales report is scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday, June 18th) at 8:30 am ET.

The consensus expects a rebound in retail sales, with:

• Headline sales expected to rise 0.3% from the previous month's flat reading of 0.0%.
  

• Sales excluding autos (ex-autos) expected to increase 0.1 percentage point (p.p.) to 0.3%.
  

• Sales ex- autos and fuel expected to rise 0.5 p.p. to 0.4%.

The control group sales, which measures a broader range of retail sales excluding autos, is expected to rebound by 0.7 p.p. to 0.4% after three consecutive declines.

Gasoline prices are expected to weigh on overall sales due to their recent decline.

Despite the weakening labor market fundamentals, higher-frequency card data suggests that consumer spending remains resilient, particularly in non-essential categories such as online retail and food services.

Auto sales are expected to rebound partially after a 0.8% decline in April, but there are concerns about the impact of ongoing supply chain issues and rising interest rates on demand.

The report will be closely watched for signs of consumer resilience amid growing worries about the potential impact of inflation and interest rate hikes on spending habits.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to consider a potential September rate cut decision, making this data release important for market participants and policymakers alike.