US Elections: Commodity Prices

There’s less than a week to the US Elections. For now, most polls are leaning towards a Trump win. However, if the past has taught us anything, it’s that polls can always be wrong.

We’re not here to choose sides, so we’ve presented the possible impact that each candidate may have on commodity prices, if elected President. We’ve tried to present both sides of the story, and our 3-6 month view on the possible direction of prices.

Gold

Gold is particularly sensitive to political and economic shifts, as well as central bank policies.

A Trump victory could introduce economic uncertainty and greater market volatility, potentially driving up gold prices as investors seek a safe haven. His trade and foreign policies could also heighten geopolitical tensions, further increasing gold’s appeal as a stable asset.

Trump’s proposed tariffs might take a year to fully implement, giving the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank room to cut interest rates, which would generally support precious metals like gold.

In contrast, a Harris presidency could influence gold differently. Her focus on climate change and renewable energy, coupled with expansionary fiscal policies, could make gold attractive as an inflation hedge. Policies that might weaken the dollar could also push gold prices higher, as a lower dollar typically boosts demand for gold in international markets.

MV View: Gold could reach $3000/oz

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